Johor disebut-sebut antara negeri yang 'bolah sahaja' jatuh ke tangan Pakatan Rakyat pada pilihan raya umum ke-13 (PRU-13) yang bakal diadakan paling lewat sebelum April 2013.
Mengapa Johor boleh jatuh ke tangan Pakatan Rakyat?Faktor paling besar yang boleh sahaja menjadi penyebab Umno-BN di sana boleh tersungkur ialah komposisi Dun yang memiliki pengundi yang 'marginal' (campuran) adalah faktor terbesar yang boleh menyumbang ke arah itu.
Johor memiliki lebih 60 peratus kawasan Dun yang bersifat marginal pengundinya dimana antara 30 ke 40 peratus pengundi bukan Melayu dan selebihnya antara 50 ke 60 peratus Melayu.
Melihat kepada perkembangan sokongan semasa bukan Melayu terhadap Pakatan Rakyat, Johor merupakan negeri yang agak kritikal kepada Umno-BN.
Meskipun beberapa pemimpin Umno Johor dan pusat menafikan andaian itu, namun mereka tidak boleh terlepas daripada hakikat sokongan rakyat yang mula teralih kepada parti-parti dalam Pakatan Rakyat.
Paling dibimbangi Umno-BN ialah kawasan-kawasan Dun dan Parlimen di Bandar serta pinggir bandar seperti Johor Bahru, Pasir Gudang, Gelang Patah, Pulai, Bakri, Segamat dan Kluang yang memiliki peratusan pengundi Cina yang tinggi khasnya.
Sebagai contoh di Parlimen Pulai yang dimenangi Dato' Nur Jazlan Mohammad (anak kepada bekas Setiausaha Agung Umno, Tan Sri Mohammad Rahmat), peratuskan pengundi Cinanya melebihi 40 peratus, boleh sahaja menyumbang kepada kejatuhan BN.
Meskipun pada pilihan raya umum 2008 lalu, Johor masih menjadi 'kubu kuat Umno', dengan pergerakan undi kaum cina hanya sekitar 40 ke 45 peratus keseluruhannnya, namun kini 'mood' sokongan sudah berbeza.
Seperti kata Ketua Pemuda PAS Johor, Suhaizan Kayat, ketika PRU 2008, pengundi Cina di Johor masih lagi berhati-hati dan tidak terlalu menzahirkan kemarahan mereka terhadap Umno-BN.
Pada PRU 2008, pembangkang hanya menang satu kerusi Parlimen di Bakri melalui Er Teck Hwa, kerana pergerakan undi Cina yang kurang memberansangkan.
Sementara PAS menang di dua kerusi Dun iaitu di Maharani dan Sungai Abong selain DAP di 4 kerusi iaitu Bentayan, Mengkibol, Skudai, Senai.
Bagi pilihan raya umum ke 13, mood pengundi Cina di Johor tidak lagi sama seperti pilihan raya 2008.
Mood itu beralih kerana sikap rasis Umno-BN dan beberapa pertubuhan bukan kerajaan (NGO) yang mirip kepada Umno-BN seperti Perkasa dan Jati.
Di seluruh Malaysia, fenomena kemarahan orang Cina terhadap Umno ini disedari rakyat, malah kepimpinan Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak yang mencanangkan liberalismepun gagal untuk mengekang kemarahan pengundi Cina.
Pengundi India pula tidak banyak berubah,Pada PRU-12, sokongan kaum India kepada pembangkang agak tinggi, meskipun sekitar tahun 2010 hingga 2011 mula beralih semula kepada Umno-MIC, namun kata Suhaizan situasi terkini memperlihatkan pengundi India masih bernisbah 50-50.
Ia belum ditambah lagi dengan perpecahan yang sedang berlaku di beberapa bahagian Umno di Johor selain kemelut Pemuda Umno Johor mengenai ketidakpercayaan terhadap Ketua Pemudanya.
Hanya orang Melayu menjadi harapan Umno di Johor dengan sokongannya juga sukar untuk diagak mana-mana pihak samada Pakatan rakyat mahupun BN.
Namun begitu, terdapat perubahan orang Melayu terutama di kalangan generasi muda dan pengundi Bandar dan kemenangan PAS di Sungai Abong dan Maharani adalah bukti orang Melayu berubah.
Purata undi Melayu kepada PR masih di antara 10 hingga 35 peratus, dan kata Suhaizan ianya dijangka meningkat menjelang PRU-13 kepada 40 peratus.
Mungkin telahan Pengerusi Pusat Khidmat Rakyat Zon Permas, Syed Osman Syed Abdullah boleh menjadi indikator bahawa Johor mampu melakar perubahan dimana sokongan pengundi Cina kepada PR hari ini boleh berada pada tahap 80 peratus khususnya di kawasan bandar.
Bagi kawasan yang ditandingi beliau pada PRU-12 sebelum ini, Dun Permas, Syed Osman hanya kalah sekitar tidak sampai 3000 undi tatkala sokongan pengundi Cina hanya pada 30 peratus pada ketika itu.
Sekiranya melihat kepada mood sekarang, Syed Osman mungkin sahaja boleh menang di Permas jika dipilih PAS untuk mewakili parti dalam PRU-13 kerana pengundi Cina mula menunjukkan sokongan yang meningkat mendadak.
Bagi kerusi DUN , Umno-BN cukup berada di dalam kedudukan bahaya di kira-kira 30 kerusi DUN dan 10 kerusi Parlimen yang mengandungi pengundi Melayu di bawah 50 peratus.
Jika tsunami deras melanda Johor pada PRU-13, pastinya sudah banyak membantu PR menuju Nusajaya (pusat pentadbiran Kerajaan Negeri Johor) dan menambah kekuatan untuk ke Putrajaya.
Oleh WAN NORDIN WAN YAACOB (dd)
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Umno-BN Johor di ambang kejatuhan!
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Dulu org kata diJohor tu..kalau letak Berok calon BN dan lawan tok guru agama dr PAS, berok tu boleh menang. Itu lah tahap mentaliti orang Johor(waktu itu). Sekarang tak tau lah ..masih ke ndak.
ReplyDeleteAljamdulillah...Johor kini dah ada 2 kerusi DUN sr PAS yg menang cara JANTAN.
ReplyDeleteSaya rasa Kelantan mungkin akan jatuh balik ke tangan BN kali ini, rakyat di situ sudah bosan dengan kegagalan PAS untuk menunaikan perjanjian 22 perkara kepada rakyat.
ReplyDeleteKerajaan PAS pun bukan baik sangat, mereka juga ada kelemahan sendiri.
ReplyDeleteJohor kan antara negeri yang menyumbang banyak kerusi kepada BN. Mustahil pembangkang dapat takluk Johor.
ReplyDeletePaling2 pun Kelantan dan Pulau Pinang saja pembangkang akan dapat kekalkan.
ReplyDeletebanyak ramalan yang dibuat tapi belum tentu lagi betul.
ReplyDeleteKelantan tidak mustahil boleh jatuh ke tangan BN
ReplyDeletekubu kuat UMNO adalah Johor dan UMNO pun lahir di Johor. bukan mudah nak jatuhkan UMNO di Johor.
ReplyDeleteKita lihat saja nanti benar atau tidak negeri kErajaan ini akan jatuh lagi.
ReplyDeletekalau minta individu yang pro Pakatan yang buat jangkaan atau ramalan, sudah tentulah ramalan itu berat sebelah.. belum cuba belum tau ba.. jangan dulu iktiraf kemenangan selagi belum bertanding..
ReplyDeleteAs far as the state BN is concerned, plain hard work is all that's needed for the 13th general election.IT has been 11/2 years since the Tenang by-election and if anyone would care to remember it, they would probably recall the floods which hit the constituency on polling day.
ReplyDeleteAs for political observers, especially those from outside Johor, the most peculiar thing about the by-election would probably be the way Johor Barisan Nasional won it -- it did so with style despite perhaps the most low-profile campaigning ever conducted by the coalition.
ReplyDeleteUmno's Mohd Azahar Ibrahim, who was the BN candidate, won by an increased majority of 3,707 votes in a constituency comprising 49 per cent Malays, 41 per cent Chinese and 10 per cent Indians and other races. There were no attempts to create a fun-fair or carnival-like atmosphere by the BN camp during the campaign period while the victory celebrations were replaced by flood relief work.
ReplyDeleteThose unfamiliar with Johor politics cannot be faulted if they wonder about BN's chances in the southern state as recent reports, especially by pro-opposition news portals, seem to indicate that the ruling coalition is set to lose more electoral seats or even control of the state altogether.
ReplyDeleteOpposition leaders, especially those from the Chinese-based DAP, had also unabashedly proclaimed that Johor would be theirs this time around. Their optimism apparently stems from the fact that Johor has a relatively large Chinese community, which is perceived as being hostile towards BN.
ReplyDeleteJohor BN holds all 26 parliamentary seats except for Bakri, as well as 50 of the 56 state seats. Unknown to many, Johor BN's preparations for the general election had started in earnest back in 2010 with its chairman, Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman, visiting each parliamentary area to check on issues which needed to be settled.
ReplyDeleteThe "big issues" involved the people's need for basic infrastructure, such as bridges, roads, religious schools, mosques and community halls.
ReplyDeleteWhen the Tenang by-election was held in late January last year, Ghani and his small team of assistants formulated a strategy of utilising grassroots leadership at the "ballot-box level" to spearhead campaigning.
ReplyDeleteThe rationale was that these grassroots leaders know the voters better and therefore, would know how best to win their support for the BN candidate.
ReplyDeleteThe strategy worked brilliantly and when Ghani completed his visits to the parliamentary areas in the middle of last year, he took the cue from that success and went on a second round of visits, this time to the almost 1,000 "ballot-box areas".
ReplyDeleteThese visits, which started in September, were for Ghani to meet grassroots leaders and help them tackle the smaller issues affecting the respective localities, such as land applications, clogged drains, widening of village roads and organising of communal activities.
ReplyDeleteBallot-box area committees, comprising grassroots leaders from all BN component parties, were given direct access to the menteri besar's office to improve coordination in their preparations for the general election. Feedback from these grassroots leaders has so far been encouraging.
ReplyDeletePekan Mersing Kecil ballot-box committee chairman Samsi Sapan said the menteri besar's visits have helped spur party members to work harder.
ReplyDelete"If the menteri besar himself can come here and sit down with ordinary people for hours, listening to their smallest problems, such as unkempt grass at the roadside, then we as ordinary party members should work even harder to ensure a bigger BN victory," he said.
ReplyDeleteSamsi said his committee members were now in the process of engaging all voters in their area and are organising communal activities such as futsal tournaments, karaoke competitions and gotong-royong.
ReplyDelete"We are also going around identifying poor residents who need help and arranging their appointments with the relevant agencies such as the Welfare Department."
ReplyDeleteThe issues brought up include the usual -- accusations of BN's alleged corrupt practices and promises of a better administration once they are in power.
ReplyDeleteSeveral attempts to stir local issues, however, have not been so successful -- the latest being the mammoth petroleum hub project in Pengerang, which Johor opposition leaders such as Johor PKR chief Datuk Chua Jui Meng had tried to equate with the Lynas rare earth plant project.
ReplyDeleteThe overall scenario as both sides of the political divide in Johor prepare for the general election is similar to the run-up to the Tenang by-election, except that now it is on a larger scale.
ReplyDeleteJohor BN, without fuss, is working hard while the opposition is trying to shock and awe Johoreans into supporting them by employing their "big guns". The outcome would be anyone's guess.
ReplyDelete